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This book proposes a new methodology for the selection of one (model) from among a set of alternative econometric models. Let us recall that a model is an abstract representation of reality which brings out what is relevant to a particular economic issue. An econometric model is also an analytical characterization of the joint probability distribution of some random variables of interest, which yields some information on how the actual economy works. This information will be useful only if it is accurate and precise; that is, the information must be far from ambiguous and close to what we observe in the real world Thus, model selection should be performed on the basis of statistics which summarize the degree of accuracy and precision of each model. A model is accurate if it predicts right; it is precise if it produces tight confidence intervals. A first general approach to model selection includes those procedures based on both characteristics, precision and accuracy. A particularly interesting example of this approach is that of Hildebrand, Laing and Rosenthal (1980). See also Hendry and Richard (1982). A second general approach includes those procedures that use only one of the two dimensions to discriminate among models. In general, most of the tests we are going to examine correspond to this category.
Patrick Suskind's Perfume is a classic novel of death and sensuality in Paris 'In eighteenth-century France there lived a man who was one of the most gifted and abominable personages in an era that knew no lack of gifted and abominable personages. His name was Jean-Baptiste Grenouille, and if his name has been forgotten today, it is certainly not because Grenouille fell short of those more famous blackguards when it came to arrogance, misanthropy, immorality, or, more succinctly, wickedness, but because his gifts and his sole ambition were restricted to a domain that leaves no traces in history: to the fleeting realm of scent ...' 'An astonishing tour de force both in concept and execution' Guardian 'A fantastic tale of murder and twisted eroticism controlled by a disgusted loathing of humanity ...Clever, stylish, absorbing and well worth reading' Literary Review 'A meditation on the nature of death, desire and decay ...a remarkable debut' Peter Ackroyd, The New York Times Book Review 'Unlike anything else one has read. A phenomenon ...Everyone seems to want to get a whiff of this strange perfume, which will remain unique in contemporary literature' Figaro 'An ingenious and totally absorbing fantasy' Daily Telegraph 'Witty, stylish and ferociously absorbing' Observer Patrick Suskind was born near Munich, in 1949. He studied medieval and modern history at the University of Munich. His first play, The Double Bass, was written in 1980 and became an international success. His first novel, Perfume, became an internationally acclaimed bestseller. He is also the author of The Pigeon and Mr. Summer's Story, and a coauthor of the enormously successful German television series Kir Royal. Patrick Suskind lives and writes in Munich.
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